Despite his loss to Roger Federer in the Cincinnati semifinals, and despite Federer’s eventual tournament win, world No. 2 Andy Murray can still overtake the Swiss in the rankings at the US Open.

For Murray to become the first Brit to rank No. 1, he will have to win the US Open title outright and hope Federer does not reach the fourth round.

The math on this is pretty straightforward. Federer loses 2,000 points off his 12,040 from last year, Murray drops 1,400 from 9,610. That leaves Federer at 10,040 and Murray at 8,210 entering the US Open (with 2008 pts removed).

That difference of 1,830 can be made up provided Murray wins the title (2,000 points) and Federer does not pick up the 200 points that come with a fourth round appearance.

Murray and Federer will be on opposite sides of the draw, and Federer’s third round test could come against someone ranked between 25-32 like Andreev, Mathieu, Karlovic and Hewitt.